Geopolitics complicate Pakistan-Afghanistan relations

Following Pakistan’s independence in 1947, relations between the two countries became complex and controversial. Pakistan’s United Nations (U.N.) membership was the main reason for disputes between the two countries, closer links with India, and Afghan opposition to the Durand Line deal signed by the British and Kabul.

According to Shah and Hussain, the border conflict and Pashtunwali concerns continued to fuel hatred between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Pakistan thus partnered with the Islamists in Afghanistan, albeit it wasn’t until 1996 that the value of having a friendly administration in Kabul became clear.

The 1979 Soviet invasion of Afghanistan drew attention to the Pak-Afghan region, where the U.S. organized and launched the fight against the Soviet Union from Pakistani soil. The orthodox Islamists were able to capture Afghanistan by exploiting the power vacuum left by Mujahedeen’s internal war.

Following the Soviet exit in 1989, the Afghan Taliban took control of the country with the assistance of Pakistan. Except for 1996-2001, the two have had strained relationships. In a post-9/11 world, Pakistan reluctantly joined the fight against the Afghan Taliban, which it had sponsored and developed.

Pakistan, like all of Afghanistan’s neighbors, supported the US-Taliban Peace Talks, which included the U.S. withdrawing all of its troops. Pakistani authorities expressed concern over the fast departure of American forces following a comprehensive agreement between the Taliban and the Afghan government.

An increase in terrorism that puts the safety and security of the Afghan people at risk has been linked to the Taliban’s rise to power in that country. The climate that the Taliban’s occupation of Afghanistan has produced is more likely to be the cause of the reappearance of terrorist groups like Al Qaeda and ISIS in that country, according to research by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

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“Terrorism and insecurity in Afghanistan have had spillover effects on the economies of the region, particularly Pakistan,” according to a different World Bank assessment. There was a general perception in Pakistan following the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan that the Taliban’s ascent in that country would help them combat the TTP’s challenges.

The notion was quickly discarded as the Taliban failed to fulfill their counterterrorism pledges and instead aided the TTP. Regional and international players expressed concerns about the Taliban’s connections to terrorist organizations and Afghanistan serving as a haven for them.

Terrorist groups, like the Taliban, have a history of organizing, planning, and carrying out assaults on Pakistani territory from Afghan territory. Pakistan has chosen to erect a border fence on its own since, for the past 20 years, terrorism has been an issue for both Pakistan and Afghanistan. Faced with rising terrorism, the Taliban’s dissatisfaction with the domestically recognized boundary has led to conflicts between the two governments.

The disorganized U.S. withdrawal has severely impacted the already tense relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Pakistan has made steps to help the U.S. and the Taliban negotiate, but the U.S. withdrew quickly, leaving Pakistan feeling abandoned and subject to unjustified criticism.

Pakistan was left to deal with socio-economic and political fallout, which has further strained relations between the two governments. The TTP and refugee crises have exacerbated the unrest. Pakistan accused the Taliban government of providing support and sanctuary to the terrorist group.

The TTP reappeared after the Afghan Taliban’s tactical win. They are using it as an opportunity to reorganize and establish Shariah law in Pakistan in addition to giving TTP a new lease on life. The Taliban’s comeback has raised the possibility that other terrorist groups, like Al Qaeda and IS-K, may have sleeper cells.

The primary cause of the worsening ties is the rise of cross-border strikes, which have reached 51%. Pakistan has resorted to what Zalmay Khalilzad called “coercive diplomacy.” Afghan officials criticize the repatriation of Afghan refugees involved in militant activities, labeling the action as “unilateral” and “humiliating” in response to charges and denials.

India reaffirmed its commitment to ongoing projects in Afghanistan. It signals that the Taliban would not benefit from India’s historical cordial ties with previous governments, such as the one led by Karzai and Ghani.

Growing concerns are mounting in Pakistan regarding Indian-backed terrorism, mainly emanating from groups such as the TTP and BLA. Those activities have escalated since the fall of Kabul, resulting in significant civilian casualties. In 2021, the BLF alone carried out nearly 176 attacks on security forces. That results in the potential deaths of up to 226 personnel.

In contrast, the BLA had carried out 38 strikes in Karachi and Baluchistan. U.N. intelligence identified the TTP as the largest terrorist organization in 2023. It boasts around 6000 fighters across Pakistan and Afghanistan.

In conclusion, Pakistan can’t risk losing its ally in Afghanistan while facing the threat of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan. The TTP’s presence and shelter in Taliban-controlled Afghanistan increase Pakistan’s security worries and require a nuanced approach towards its neighbor.

In conclusion, Pakistan can’t risk losing its ally in Afghanistan while facing the threat of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan. The TTP’s presence and shelter in Taliban-controlled Afghanistan increase Pakistan’s security worries and require a nuanced approach towards its neighbor. 

Pakistan guides a complex geopolitical landscape in which ensuring stability and security entails adeptly controlling its relationship with Afghanistan and dealing with internal security challenges.