China’s population is already facing a significant challenge: it’s shrinking. But what would happen if China were to invade Taiwan? The consequences could be devastating, not only in terms of military casualties but also demographically.
Let’s delve into the demographic implications of such a conflict:
Russia-Ukraine War: To understand the potential impact, we can look at the Russia-Ukraine war. Beyond the loss of life, both countries experienced a decline in births due to the conflict.
Russia’s fertility rate dropped significantly after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and President Vladimir Putin has long warned of the country’s path toward extinction. Economic recession and war preparedness in Ukraine contributed to a falling fertility rate.
The full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia further exacerbated the demographic crisis. The combination of out-migration, war casualties, and low fertility rates led to a substantial reduction in Ukraine’s population.
Also Read: US, EU sanction Iran over Israel attack
Taiwan’s Vulnerability: Now consider Taiwan. Taiwan’s average annual economic growth rate has declined due to an aging population and a shrinking workforce. If a war were to break out over Taiwan, the demographic consequences could be severe. Labor shortages, aging, and disability would hinder post-war reconstruction. The fertility rate might not recover significantly, leading to a continued birth decline.
China’s Dilemma: China faces a dilemma. While reunification with Taiwan is a priority, it must also grapple with the potential demographic fallout. A war would likely exacerbate China’s existing demographic challenges. An aging population, declining birth rates, and a shrinking workforce could hinder economic growth and strain social services.
Unbearable Consequences: The best deterrent against war may lie in making China aware of the intolerable demographic costs. A conflict over Taiwan could accelerate China’s population decline, affecting its economic future and global influence.
The demographic consequences of a Taiwan invasion would be far-reaching. As geopolitical tensions escalate, policymakers must consider military strategies and the long-term impact on populations. China’s dream of national rejuvenation could turn into a demographic nightmare if it chooses the path of war.
I am Bushra Tahir. Doing BS in International Relations from National University Of Modern Languages ( NUML).
